Sudanese Crisis: Is Peace Visible?
By Victor Damilare Erinfolami
The Dafur crisis which seems to be a Sudanese phenomenon is growing to be an issue of continental and world concern, just as all the peace accord reached and all the International efforts for peace have been rebuffed due to reasons that the actors in the crisis considered sacred to their interest.
Although, Sudan is one of the countries of the world that are divided along many lines of differences among which are religion, ethnic, tribal and economic activities. Sudan is divided along the line of religion into Muslims whose population accounted for over 70% of the population, Christians whose population is about 5 percent of the total population and the animist whose population accounted for 25 percent of the total population of Sudan. Along ethnic lines, Sudan is divided into people of African and Arab origin and these still consist of many other tribes of people. While the economic activities divides the Sudanese into nomadic and sedentary.
Sudan which is Africa's biggest country has since independence in 1956 been in constant war over natural resources, religious differences etc. With the most violent of the crisis happening between 1956 1972 and 1983 2005.
The South in 1955 mutinied against the North out of fear of domination since the British colonialist has left the North with a well orchestrated rule of Sudan. According to a report by International Crisis Group on conflict Prevention and Resolution (ICG), the South after their military mutiny formed the Anya-Nya guerilla movement. After which General Abboud seized power in 1958 and he instituted policy of Islamisation thereafter. In 1964 a popular uprising forced out General Abboud after which successive governments were formed by the Arab tribe until 1969 when a coup d'etat enthroned General Nimieri.
A communist coup was stage in 1971, although unsuccessful but it gave General Nimieri a sense of political isolation and this believed to have spurred him to broken peace with the enstranged leader of the southern Sudan Anya Nya granting the South
autonomy in March 1972. Niemieri also sought peace with other African country with severed relationship like Ethiopia and Uganda.
The discovery of oil in 1978 in the Southern city of Bentiu and governments insincerity with the peace agreement coupled with increasing Islamic shift led to the resumption of war and the eventual deployment of government troops to the oil rich Bentiu.
Southern troops again mutinied against government in early 1983 which lead to the abrogation of the Addis Abbaba peace agreement by June, dissolving South's constitutional rights guarantees and declaring Arabic as the official language and by September the Islamic sharing Law
has replaced the Sudanese law. The Southern Sudan grievances revolved around the Sudan people's liberation Army / Movement militia led by John Garang and this led to the popular uprising that ousted Nimieri in 1985 and the government of Sadiq Al-Mahdi was democratically elected in 1986.
Although moves were already under way by the government of Sadiq Al-Mahdi to broker peace with the Sudanese Peoples Liberation Army(SPLA) and the government is due to pass a bill freezing Sharia Law in under 24 hours when in 1989 National Islamic Front (NIF) led by General Omar Al-Bashir staged a bloodless coup ousting Sadiq Al-Mahdi's government.
General Omar's NIF immediately after seizing power suspended all peace processes, revoked the Sudanese constitution, banned opposition parties, moved to Islamised the Judicial system and stepped-up the North and South war, declaring Jihad on the non-Muslim Southern government.
The fall of Mengistsu regime in Ethiopia weakened the Sudanese People's Liberation Army (SPLA) coupled with internal split that lead to factionising and an eventual inter-ethic fighting in the South. Harbouring of Osama Bin Laden in Khartoum and other Islamic fundamentalist groups in early 1990's also led to International Isolation.
Kenyan led regional Inter-governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) made little progress in the negotiation between government and SPLA in the period of 1994 2001. July 2002 Machakos protocol granted self determination referendum (autonomy) to south after a six years period of struggle, while maintaining Sharia Law in the North. The mid 2003 struggle for land and power in the western region of Dafur intensified with the pro-government Militia, Arab Janjaweed undertaking a policy of ethnic cleansing towards the civilian population of the African Tribes, with reinforced attacks by the government forces the number of people killed was over 200, 000 Darfurians and over.
2 million were displaced. Although the African Union mission in Sudan (AMIS) in 2004 did their best at quelling the killings and war but peace still eluded the country.
The Naivasha accords formally ended the North and South war by the Signing of Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in January 2005, incorporating SPLA/M into Government of National Unity (GNU) and schedule for 2009 national election were created but still the implementation was stilted. This was due to the lack of political will on the side of the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and the death of the (SPLA/M) leader, Dr. John Garang in July 2005, which incapacitated the group from being a good opposition to NCP's breach of agreement.
After the new Government led by “same old” Al-bashir was sworn in by October 2006, a new constitution was drafted and the Government of National Unity (GNU) with SPLA reigned peacefully until the July 2007 deadline for government troops withdrawal from the South passed which led to the walk-out of SPLA/M from the GNU in October 2007 protesting the delays, only to return by December 2007.
After the return of the Sudanese Peoples' Liberation Army (SPLA) they held cabinet and foreign Minister positions but the tension between the Janjawed Arab militia and the SPLM in the oil rich Abyei region on North-South border intensified and lead to the most serious breaches of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). This also lead to the displacement of over 10, 000 people who fled for fear that it may escalate to a full- scale civil war.
This lead to the NCP and SPLM signing a Roadmap Agreement by June 2008, to defuse the conflict which has left many civilians dead, Non-Governmental Organization workers and soldiers of the African Union Mission to Sudan(AMIS). Both NCP and SPLM agreeing to submit the troubled Abyei border dispute to Hague based permanent Court for Arbitration.
A Militia group called Justice and Equity Movement's attempted ground on Khartoum between May 10 11, 2008 prompted the government to launch a major retaliatory aerial and ground attacks in West and North Dafur which led to the arrest of 300 suspected JEM members in the capital.
The Sudan problem became more and more complicated just as the war goes beyond the border of the country, leading affront against Chad and destabilizing the African Democratic Republic. Refusal of Khatoum to welcome UN Peace Keepers while performing the beleaguered AU troops also did not help the peace matters and this has led to the death of many in the country especially the health volunteer workers and other Foreign AID workers.
Although many reasons has been ascribed to the 2007 disagreement between President Omar Al-Bashir and the Southern leader Salvia Kiir, who is the leader of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM). In an article dated 19th October, 2007 from the Guardian Newspaper website, the SPLM accuses the NCP of monopolizing power by behaving like the only governing party and lacking transparency in the distribution of Sudan's supposed by shared oil wealth while arresting various southern activities living in the north. While the Bashir's National Congress party has in turn blamed SPLM for the delays in the implementation of the comprehensive Peace Agreement, which NCP claimed ended the 21 years of war between the Moslem north and mainly Christian and animist south that killed at least two million people and displaced millions more.
Though, politically Sudan has been denied many opportunities, this leaves one wondering why the Actors in the Crisis are still turning deaf hears on the peace agreements. One of the disadvantaged beneficiary in this crisis is President Omar Al-Bashir whose dream of becoming African Union's leader was dashed twice among other international sanctions against Sudan under his rule.
Al-Bashir was accused by African leaders of not doing much to end the crisis in his country. Backing the AU leadership in 2007 was the Amnesty International who has earlier warned that Al-Bashir's becoming the chairman of the organization will damage the credibility of the Union. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon who rallied the African leaders in 2007 expressed the importance of getting all the rebel groups to sign the peace agreement. An advice which if had been taken seriously would have prevented militia groups like JEM from raising another insurgency that led to the bloodshed early in 2008.
The recent application for a warrant of arrest for the President of Sudan, Al-Bashir, at the International Criminal Court by ICC prosecutor Louis Moreno- Ocampo has generated heat from around the world. Ojigho Osai of African Court Project an NGO in Lagos, Nigeria, expresses fear that the application if granted may not necessarily help the peace process in Sudan ,just as he stated that the disagreements over the application for the arrest warrant for president Al-Bashir may not help in the International peace support actions needed if the civilians in the country are to be protected.
Ojigho in his article published in Thisday Lawyer on the 30th September,2008,opined that the peace process in Dafur could be better handled if all the international actors uniformly focus on protecting and securing the rights of the people of Dafur who are desperately in search of respite from their war ravaged country. Even as many organizations have condemned the Moreno-Ocampo's ICC application, it has helped the regime of Omar Al-Bashir to focus on a true resolution of the crisis in Sudan.
An article by International Crisis Group said that the ICC prosecutor's application has increased pressure on the regime in Sudan to implement genuine measures to resolve the Darfur Crisis but it also poses major risk for Sudan's fragile peace. Declaiming that the ruling NCP was clearly shaken by the development while trying to manage political and legal implications of the application, seeking international support especially from African Union and Arab league states both organizations condemned the Moreno-Ocampo's application.
International Crisis Group (ICG) said that since the May 2006 Darfur Peace Agreement has failed because of too limited scope and signatories who had gone behind hurt the peace process, advising that the new joint AU/UN mediator, former foreign Minister of Burkina Faso Djibrill Bassole appointed in 2008 should use this opportunity to reformulate the process, broadening participation and addressing all the conflict's root causes like the land tenure, grazing rights and use and the unresolved role of the local government, all of which were not resolved by the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA).
ICG also suggested that the UN/AU hybrid peacekeeping operation in Darfur (UNAMID) once fully operational should make it priority to protect civilians and responding to ceasefire violations. Advising the UN security council to apply punitive measures to any party obstructing negotiations, the work of the International Criminal Courts (ICC), or violating arms embargo or International Humanitarian Law, among other which have been fulfilled by the council.
International Crisis Group (ICG) also saic that for peace to be achievable in Sudan, the U.S, China and other member of the security council of the United Nation and member states of the AU and UN should now apply effective pressure on all sides, particularly on the NCP to abandon attempts to achieve a military victory; Support the AU/UN mediation as the sole International forum for pursuing a peaceful Darfur settlement; Develop consensus for a political strategy, including the application of punitive measures against those responsible.
Despite ICG'S suggestions and Nigeria's spending of Billions of naira on equipping its contingents in the African Mission in Dafur, the regime of Omar Al-Bashir has been obstinate to the peace deals. Abhorring the likes of Ahmed Harun, a Government Minister and Janjaweed Commander, Ali Kushayb, both of whom the International Criminal Court (ICC) has since 27th April 2007 issued warrants for their arrest for committing war crimes against humanity in Dafur.
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